However, results suggest that achieving a sub-two hour marathon in an official race in 2021 is still very unlikely, and exceeds 10% probability only by 2025. We find a significant evidence of performance-enhancement effect with a 10% increase of the probability that a new world record for marathon-men discipline is set in 2021. On Saturday, Kenyan runner Eliud Kipchoge came closer to breaking the 2-hour marathon barrier than any person in history, racing 42.2 kilometers in just 2 hours and 24 seconds. For context, the first two entries are for Eluid Kipchoges sub 2 hour marathon. The analysis is performed using extreme value theory, a field of statistics dealing with analysis of rare events. There are three charts one in miles, one in km and finally one with both units. In this work, we assess the potential influence of advanced footwear technology and the likelihood of a sub-two hour marathon in official races, by studying the evolution of running top performances from 2001 to 2019 for long distances ranging from 10 km to marathon. Besides, Kipchoge's use of Alphafly shoes was controversial, with some experts claiming that they might have provided an unfair competitive advantage. Over a range of speeds which could be considered to be submaximal (being the fastest marathon time ever recorded, it wasn't officially recognized as race conditions were tightly controlled to maximize his success. In 2019, Eliud Kipchoge ran a sub-two hour marathon wearing Nike's Alphafly shoes.
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